What Do US Tariffs Mean for the Australian Livestock Market?

There’s been plenty of chatter recently about the potential ripple effects of the United States’ new tariffs — especially when it comes to how they might impact Australia’s livestock industry.

At this point, Australia’s competitive position in the US market remains steady. While the US has introduced a 10% tariff on imported beef, Brazil - the largest supplier of beef to the US and a major competitor to Australia - is also affected. This means that Australia isn't at a disadvantage relative to Brazil, and for now, maintains its footing in the lucrative US market (Wahlquist, 2025).

What remains uncertain is how this additional cost will be absorbed along the supply chain. With strong consumer demand and limited domestic supply in the US, it’s unlikely that producers or processors will wear the full cost. More likely, American consumers will see higher prices at the checkout - a common outcome when tariffs are introduced during periods of tight supply.

Meanwhile, the international trade landscape is shifting. In 2024, China was the third-largest market for US beef exports. That dynamic is changing rapidly, as China has declined to renew approvals for any US beef processing establishments. This move significantly restricts US beef access to a key market and opens up new opportunities for competitors like Australia (Brann, 2025).

Australian grain-fed beef is already capitalising on this shift. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), 21,885 tonnes were exported to China in just February and March of this year - nearly 40% more than the same period in 2023. This kind of growth is significant and shows the strength of demand for high-quality Australian beef in the Chinese market.

But while this surge is promising, it’s not without risks. The broader context of rising trade tensions - particularly between major economies like the US and China brings volatility. Escalating tit-for-tat tariffs could create unpredictable market conditions that make long-term planning difficult for exporters.

For now, Australia appears well-positioned to benefit from short-term trade shifts. But to secure sustainable growth, the livestock industry will need to stay agile, invest in market diversification, and closely monitor geopolitical developments.